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Computer Models Suggest Possibility of Controlling Future Avian Flu Outbreaks

Brief Description:
Results from a program involving computer models indicate that an outbreak of avian flu could be contained before causing a global pandemic.

Transcript:
Akinso: Although experts differ on what would happen if avian flu were more easily passed from person to person, computer models show that an outbreak could be contained before spreading into a global pandemic. The program, known as MIDAS, is funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences. The models simulate what could happen if the avian flu were to start passing efficiently between people in southeast asia. Doctor Jeremy Berg, the Director of NIGMS says, these models will offer policymakers and researchers powerful tools to use in strategic planning to prevent a pandemic.

Dr. Berg: "It is possible, based on the computer modeling to contain the virus locally but only if a number things are true. If the early cases are detected. If there's enough antiviral drug around. If those drugs are mobilized and given to the right people who are either locally connected with the initial cases or connected through social interaction networks. And assuming that the virus, it's self, isn't to fundamentally infectious. So they suggest with the right set of circumstances that controlling a viral outbreak is possible."

Akinso: The avian flu is deadly, but according to Doctor Berg a pandemic is not a possibility just yet.

Dr. Berg: "The thing which hasn't happened is that cases don't spread from person to person. So there is clearly transmission from bird to human. But once it gets into human it doesn't get passed or passed only under very extreme circumstances from person to person."

Akinso: Because the computer models cannot capture all the complexities of real communities and real outbreaks, the MIDAS researchers will continue to refine their simulations and test different scenarios as new information becomes available. This is Wally Akinso at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.

This page was last reviewed on September 30, 2005 .

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